Behind Enemy Lines: Western Kentucky
There is a new level of excitement surrounding the annual "100 Miles of Hate" rivalry approaching its latest chapter. The showdown between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders promises to be a high-stakes affair, with emotions running high and both teams eager to prove their position atop Conference USA in the early going.
In a recent episode of the Blue Raider Podcast, I sat down with Steven Moffett of the Topper Talk Podcast to dissect the upcoming matchup. Moffett, a seasoned analyst and observer of Hilltopper football, shared insights on Western Kentucky's season so far and what fans can expect in this pivotal game.
Western Kentucky’s Season So Far
The Hilltoppers started with a mixed bag: a road contest against preseason Top 5 Alabama and local in-state rival Eastern Kentucky. The clash with the Crimson Tide quickly turned one-sided, with Alabama's depth and talent overwhelming Western Kentucky in a 63-0 loss. However, the Hilltoppers bounced back with a strong finish to a 31-0 victory over Eastern Kentucky, showcasing their ability to regroup and execute effectively down the stretch.
Quarterback TJ Finley’s Impact
A key focus of the conversation was the performance of new quarterback TJ Finley. Transferring from Texas State, Finley has shown flashes of brilliance despite a rough outing against Alabama. Against Eastern Kentucky, he demonstrated significant improvement, amassing over 350 yards passing and two touchdowns. Not nearly the mobile QB the Blue Raiders saw in their previous two weeks, but Finley has the ability to use his legs in the face of a pass rush. Finley has arguably the strongest arm in CUSA – it is important the pass rush disrupts the Hilltoppers timing so the 6 foot, 7 inch signal caller can’t air it out.
Notable Offensive Personnel
Western Kentucky’s offense appears potent, with playmakers like Elijah Young in the backfield. The tailback from Knoxville, TN rushed for over 450 yards in his first season in Bowling Green after spending his first three years at Mizzou. The receiving corps reloaded after losing 3,000 career yard receiver Malachi Corley to graduation. Names to keep an eye on are Kisean Johnson, an Alabama State, FCS All-American transfer, and redshirt-Sophomore Moussa Barry.
Defensive Struggles with Rush Defense
An area where the Hilltoppers have struggled historically. In 2023, the Toppers ranked 6th in CUSA in rushing yards allowed and yards per carry, and ranked 7th in sacks. We saw glimpses of the continued struggle allowing both Alabama, amassing over 334 yards on the ground, and EKU to rush for another 190 last Saturday. Despite returning a solid defensive front, stopping the run remains to be seen and may be an area to exploit in a potentially wet Saturday matchup.
Rivalry Recent History
Western Kentucky has dominated the series in recent years, including a streak of victories since 2019, and winning eight of the last nine games of the rivalry. It is noteworthy that the last two Blue Raider victories of the 100 Miles of Hate came within the confines of Floyd Stadium in 2018 and 2014.
Betting Lines: Jake’s Picks (1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U)
The game line currently favors Western Kentucky by 7 points. I really believe this game will be close, especially if it becomes a ground and pound matchup in the trenches in the event rain blows through the mid-state as the weather currently forecasts. I like the Raiders covering in that style of game, especially after winning the possession battle in Oxford shows Reeder can control the clock well. The over-under currently sits at 54.5 on most books, MTSU has covered that total in both of their games, even the Tennessee Tech game that was played in similar conditions. I think WKU’s playbook will open up significantly from the first two weeks and we will see a ballgame in the 30’s for both teams. I'd hammer the over on Saturday, rain or shine.